Returns on investment first, the tax authority second 

The Dutch government still cannot get its Box 3 reform over the line, and it is willing to allow crypto investors fall through the cracks along the way. The new law taxes paper gains as a rule. From 2028, shares and other financial instruments are exempt and only taxed when you sell. Crypto you hold yourself does not get that exemption, while the same bitcoin wrapped in a financial instrument is taxed only on sale. The switch for crypto is planned for 2030, but it is not in the law yet. That is unfair, but it is no reason to look at crypto differently. When you invest, you first decide where the returns are. Only then comes the setup: as tax-efficient as possible, and with management that moves with the market.

Nine months, three routes

In February, the House of Representatives passed the Actual Return Box 3 Act, with a tax on annual unrealized gains as the main rule. In June, the Senate postponed the vote. On Prinsjesdag, Budget Day, the government asked to put the law on hold, and on September 29 it followed up with an amending bill after all: shares, bonds and exchange-traded funds move to a capital gains tax from 2028, and other assets are expected to follow in 2030. The tax-free allowance was set to be nearly halved in 2027, but that plan did not survive two days in the House. The notional return on which Box 3 taxes crypto is expected to go up in 2027, from 6 to 7.87 percent. Anyone who had aligned their investment policy with the tax rules of the moment would have had to overhaul it three times in this period.

Same bitcoin, two regimes

For crypto investors, it is even more skewed. Crypto you hold yourself falls under the tax on unrealized gains in 2028 and 2029. A financial instrument tracking the same bitcoin is taxed only when you sell. State Secretary Eerenberg told the House that including crypto “simply is not possible.” The explanatory memorandum shows what that rests on: the Tax Administration’s filing software has one category for investments, and according to the government, other categories cannot be added to it. Meanwhile, the sector the government itself brought under MiCA and AFM supervision has to explain why regulated ownership comes out worse for tax purposes than a product wrapper from an issuer that’s often based abroad. That plants a time bomb under a carefully built sector, and you are entitled to be angry about it.

The choice comes first

However, anger is not an investment strategy. Investing means chasing returns and the most important decision is where you look for them. I am convinced that crypto, for anyone with a horizon of five years or more, offers an opportunity in a class of its own. Over that time frame, what matters is the upside potential, with the volatility that inevitably comes with it. Tax determines how much of the return you keep, but it doesn’t determine whether the return materializes. If you reverse that order and let the taxman make your investment choices, you’re only letting yourself get distracted.

Then the setup

Only after that choice comes the question of how to organize it as well as possible, and that’s where tax does carry real weight. For a volatile investment, a tax on unrealized gains is the least favorable form. The Dutch Association of Crypto Service Providers (Nederlandse Vereniging Cryptodienstverleners) ran the numbers. Say you hold €20,000 in bitcoin on January 1, 2028. The price doubles in 2028 and halves in 2029, and at the end of 2029 you sell for the same amount. Your return is zero, but you have paid 6,840 euros in tax on gains that were never realized. Losses can only be carried forward. In the worst case, you sell in a dip to pay a tax bill on a peak. If you want to avoid that, you look at a setup in which price gains are only taxed when realized. Investing through your own private limited company (BV) is the best-known example. Whether that suits you is a question for your tax authority. What matters more is that this question belongs to the setup, not to the choice.

Riding the waves

In this market, returns do not come in a straight line. In Sailing Against the Wind, I wrote that news and price relate to each other in unpredictable ways. You do not know in advance where and how growth will come, only that the waves will come. If you take that seriously, you choose an approach where someone is at the helm every day, adjusting course and spreading risk. That’s why asset management is a logical choice for many investors: the long horizon stays in place, while the course is optimized along the way. 

That is how Amdax sees it too. We have no influence over what The Hague does with Box 3 in the coming years, but we do help our clients set themselves up for it as well as possible: with business accounts for those investing through a BV, and together with the tax specialists we work with. Our choice for this market stands, and we organize ourselves accordingly: licensed, supervised, and with asset management for those who’d rather not ride the waves themselves. Politics provides the distraction. Returns remain the reason to invest.

Please note: investing in crypto assets involves risks. You may lose all or part of your investment. Please be aware of this and stay informed about the risks.