Bitcoin makes a giant leap upwards

In the past two trading days, nobody could ignore bitcoin. The currency surged 10% in a short time and set price records in various currencies. Ether also found a higher gear. How come? That, and more, you'll read in this Weekly!

This Weekly in brief:

• Market: After a spectacular week, bitcoin is above $59,000. The driving force behind this rise seems to be once again the optimism about the American bitcoin ETFs. We also see substantial capital inflow again this week.
• News: Ether had a good week just like bitcoin. All eyes are on a major upgrade for ether, scheduled in less than three weeks.
• Behind the Scenes: We are pleased to share a recent interview with our CEO Lucas Wensing in Quote magazine and new features in the Amdax iOS app.

Market update

The crypto market had a spectacular week. Bitcoin's price rose 14% in three days to $59,000. Ether also had little to complain about with an increase to $3,300. This means bitcoin, measured in dollars, is now only 14% below the all-time high of $69,000.

Bitcoin has set new records in more and more other currencies. Of course, in very weak currencies like the Turkish lira and the Argentine peso. But last week also in the Japanese yen and this week in the Norwegian krone. If you would like to keep an eye on this, Bart Mol, analyst at Bitcoin Alpha, regularly posts updates on X about the countries where bitcoin reaches an all-time high.

As one of the last countries, the US is up next. Yet that's the all-time high we often talk about the most. The price in dollars is by far the most important price for crypto investors. Most of the trading is denominated in dollars, and most analysts also assess the charts and figures expressed in dollars.

Where we saw a new record in the Norwegian kroner without much fanfare, we expect a stronger reaction from investors towards $69,000. In financial markets, we often see the price turn or pause against the top of a previous bull market.

At the current pace, we could get there quickly. But in financial markets, it rarely goes straight up. Another station where traders could pause is around $62,000. That is the target price if you were to treat the consolidation of the past two weeks as a flag pattern.

The optimism in the crypto market is being fueled by the success of the American spot bitcoin ETFs. Especially in the first weeks of February, we were impressed by the large capital flows. The bitcoin trackers collectively pulled nearly 45,000 bitcoins from the market in the week of February 12th. That's 9,000 bitcoins per day, ten times more than the 900 bitcoins miners typically bring into circulation daily.

Last week, the scenario was quite different. Following a bank holiday on Monday, during which the American exchanges were also closed, the ETFs experienced a few weak days.

It's tempting, especially now that the inflow to the funds seems to be picking up again, to extrapolate a few weeks of high inflow into the following months and conclude that all-time highs and prices of many thousands per bitcoin are within reach. But we know too little about the money flowing into these ETFs to make such predictions.

Because who is buying these ETF shares? Are they long-term investors, or perhaps traders who sell the shares at the first sign of trouble? We need some patience for an answer. In the meantime, we will continue to closely monitor the ETFs.

News overview

It wasn't just bitcoin that performed well this week. Ether also made an impressive leap with a 15% increase. In the first half of the week, the coin outperformed bitcoin, but later partly relinquished that lead.

Regardless, it's a reason for the ETH bulls to show up en masse. "Ether is heading straight for all-time highs!" is the prevailing sentiment among them.

The cheerleaders cite several reasons for this, including the imminent approval of a spot ether ETF, the game-changing impact of layer 2 solutions, a plethora of airdrops, and the onset of a new NFT bull market. Narrative follows price, and it's evident that the right story is still being sought around ether. Perhaps the impending upgrade is the best explanation, as it's not uncommon for the prospect of significant improvements to temporarily lead to higher prices.

In just under three weeks, the upgrade named Dencun is expected to be implemented on the Ethereum mainnet. Here are the two main improvements this upgrade brings:

• EIP-4844, also known as 'Proto-Danksharding.' This introduces a new transaction type to Ethereum – blobs – designed to reduce transaction fees paid by rollups/layer 2 solutions. A blob can be used to store data, such as validating that the work delegated to a second layer has been performed fairly. Blobs have their own fee market and are therefore unaffected by the high spikes that sometimes occur.
• EIP-4788. After this upgrade, no third party is needed for communication between the part of Ethereum that executes transactions and the part that validates transaction validity. This simplifies staking processes and various applications – including staking pools, restaking, and bridges – no longer need to make as many error-prone assumptions about the state of the Ethereum network.

We're curious to see if ether can maintain the momentum it has gained in the coming week!

Other news:

• Reddit invested a small portion of its cash reserves in bitcoin and ether. The company also holds matic (Polygon), reportedly "to help cover the sale of certain virtual goods."

• Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) invests $100 million in EigenLayer. This must have been the icing on the cake for the restaking protocol, which locked in a whopping last month.

•Prices of AI tokens soar after Nvidia's quarterly earnings report. The price of Worldcoin, a project led by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, rose 300% in February. A clear Nvidia effect is also visible in the stock market.

• Financial advisor platform opens doors to bitcoin ETFs. Carson Group has selected funds from BlackRock, Fidelity, Bitwise, and Franklin Templeton based on reputation and volume. Carson manages a total of $30 billion.