Every week, Amdax summarizes what’s happening in the crypto market for you. Want to dive deeper? Click on the links in this email for more insights.

This newsletter is a co-production with our partner, Bitcoin Alpha.    

Market update

Stay informed in three steps:

1. Stocks hit record highs while crypto falls behind

Soft inflation data and expectations of monetary easing are pushing equities to new record levels. Yet crypto has barely benefited so far: bitcoin traded around $110,000 over the past week. The market appears to be waiting for a catalyst to trigger the next phase of growth.

2. Bitcoin in gold’s shadow

Gold climbed above $4,000 per troy ounce this month before easing slightly. Is it time for bitcoin to step out of gold’s shadow? Measured in gold, one bitcoin has fallen to about 28 ounces, its lowest level in years. A return to the previous ratio of roughly 40 ounces would imply a bitcoin price of around $150,000.

3. Fed approaches turning point but keeps policy tight

The U.S. Federal Reserve is preparing to cut interest rates and end its balance sheet reduction (QT). This shift is generally positive for risk assets such as crypto. Still, it does not mean a return to easy money: the U.S. economy remains strong, and inflation is still above the Fed’s target.

News overview

The key headlines from this week:

• Crypto takes center stage in the New York mayoral race. Former governor Andrew Cuomo is running for mayor of New York and is using crypto as a key plank: he promises to make the city the “world capital of digital money.” His main opponent, Zohran Mamdani, has voiced criticism, highlighting Cuomo’s ties to the exchange OKX. The election is on November 4th. It will not decide crypto’s fate, but it is a signal: New York is, after all, home to Wall Street.

• Trump pardons Binance founder CZ. Changpeng Zhao (CZ), the former Binance CEO convicted of violating U.S. anti–money laundering laws, has received a presidential pardon from Donald Trump. The former president described the move as the end of the “war on crypto.” Critics have labeled it an act of favoritism, yet the gesture carries weight: it indicates a renewed openness from the White House toward Binance. Whether and how Binance will re-enter the U.S. market remains uncertain.

• Aave acquires neobank Stable to bring DeFi to the mainstream. The fintech acquisition gives Aave access to technology and talent to offer savings and lending products directly to consumers. The aim is to build on Aave’s success as a DeFi protocol with a user-friendly banking experience for a broader audience. Financial terms were not disclosed.

• a16z declares 2025 the year the world went “on-chain.” In its new State of Crypto report, the venture firm sees a maturing sector: more than $4 trillion in total market value, $46 trillion in stablecoin transactions, and record growth in the number of active wallets participating in crypto. Major banks are entering the space, and the next wave will come from the convergence of crypto, AI, and tokenization.

• Rumble introduces bitcoin tipping in partnership with Tether. Video platform Rumble, a popular alternative to YouTube with more than 50 million monthly users, has announced plans to launch bitcoin tipping for creators in collaboration with Tether. The feature, currently in testing, is expected to go live in December. Earlier, Tether invested $775 million in Rumble, and the relationship is now being strengthened further.

Amdax's take

The market is gradually reopening to risk. Stocks are breaking records, gold is easing, and the Fed appears to be nearing the end of its tightening cycle. Meanwhile, the crypto market remains notably quiet. This may seem counterintuitive, but it aligns with patterns seen in previous cycles: crypto assets tend to respond later to improving liquidity conditions. Once ETF inflows strengthen and attention returns to the sector, momentum could build rapidly.