Afbeelding weekly

Large investors pay little attention to noise

Remo
Remo Zuiderwijk Content specialist

25 June 2025

Market Update 

Stay informed in three steps:

1. Bitcoin briefly dips below $100,000
This happened last Sunday, following U.S. airstrikes in Iran. There was no real panic, and the price quickly recovered in the days that followed. Bitcoin has since climbed back above $107,000. The response shows that the market has become more resilient—shocks no longer automatically trigger heavy sell-offs.

2. Altcoins show cautious recovery
Altcoins took another hit over the weekend. At its lowest point, Ether was down 27% from its early June local high, while SOL briefly dropped more than 30% below its late May peak. A recovery is now underway. Altcoins are moving in sync with bitcoin but remain more sensitive to market shocks and sentiment.

3. ETF inflows show little concern over geopolitical tensions
The recent drop in bitcoin’s price did not affect inflows into U.S. bitcoin funds, which have recorded only positive days since June 9. Ether ETFs saw a small $11 million outflow on Friday, but this was more than offset by a $100 million inflow on Monday. This highlights the sustained interest from institutional and traditional investors.

News Overview

Signal from the noise:

  • ProCap Financial builds $1 billion bitcoin reserve
    Investor Anthony Pompliano is launching ProCap, a new company that uses bitcoin as a strategic treasury asset. The company is merging with an existing public entity and aims to manage $1 billion in BTC. Revenues are expected to come from lending, derivatives, and other financial services. According to Pompliano, bitcoin is “the strongest form of capital” and deserves a central role in modern treasury strategies.
     
  • Texas clears the way for a state bitcoin reserve
    Governor Greg Abbott has signed SB 21 into law, establishing a legal framework for a state bitcoin reserve. $10 million has been set aside for potential purchases, to be managed by the Texas Comptroller. Only bitcoin is eligible. It is not yet known if or when any purchases will be made.
     
  • BBVA advises wealthy clients to allocate up to 7% to bitcoin
    Spain’s third-largest bank has been actively advising high-net-worth clients on bitcoin since September. “For a risk-tolerant profile, up to 7% in crypto,” BBVA says. Even 3% “could improve performance without significant risk.” According to Herbert Blankesteijn, this highlights an important development around bitcoin: from pariah to pillar in a modern investment strategy.
     
  • Michael Saylor becomes bitcoin adviser to Pakistan
    The billionaire has been appointed as a strategic adviser to the Pakistani government. The appointment follows a June 16 meeting with the Finance Minister and Bilal bin Saqib, who had earlier announced plans for a strategic bitcoin reserve. The timing is notable: Pakistan is facing economic turmoil and a struggling sovereign fund of $8 billion—a fraction of Saylor’s bitcoin holdings.
     
  • JPMorgan tests deposit tokens on Coinbase’s Base network
    The ‘JPMD’ tokens are intended for institutional clients and represent real bank deposits. This step blurs the line between traditional finance and DeFi. Coinbase itself is also exploring that boundary: the company has applied for SEC approval to facilitate the trading of stocks issued as tokens on blockchain networks.
     

Amdax’s Take
The crypto market proves resilient. After briefly dipping below $100,000, bitcoin quickly rebounded, supported by continued ETF inflows and easing tensions. The trend is clear: traditional and institutional investors are steadily building positions. This is reflected in recent news—from ProCap to BBVA and JPMorgan. Bitcoin is embedding itself more deeply into the traditional financial system and is becoming less affected by geopolitical noise.

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Amdax Research

The Illusion of Predictability

Price models with impressive statistics—such as an R-squared of 95%—often give the impression that markets can be predicted with near-perfect accuracy. But is that really the case?

In his latest article, Tim Stolte explains why such figures can be misleading, how even random price series can appear predictable, and why it’s not the models that fail—but the conclusions we draw from them.

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Behind the scenes

Amdax is moving: one floor up

Next week, we’re moving. Not far, but certainly noticeable: just one floor up in our familiar tower at the Zuidas. The new floor is more spacious and modern, with additional call and meeting rooms, more space for new colleagues, a larger kitchen, and a refreshed studio. We look forward to welcoming you to our renewed workspace soon.

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Remo
Remo Zuiderwijk Content specialist

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