Bitcoin price reaches highest level since January

Every week, Amdax summarizes what’s happening in the crypto market for you. Want to dive deeper? Click on the links (if available) in this article for more insights.

Market update

Stay informed in three steps:

1. Crypto and stocks rise as oil prices decline
Bitcoin touched almost 87,400 dollars on Monday, its highest level since late January. That is about 15 percent above where it stood on Wednesday last week. Even so, the price is still roughly 30 percent below the record set last October. There was no single clear trigger, but risk markets moved together. The broader altcoin space joined in, with gains of 9 percent for XRP, 7 percent for solana and 5 percent for ether. Stocks climbed too, with the Nasdaq up 2.8 percent. Meanwhile, oil declined for a fourth day in a row after reports that the Saudi East-West pipeline could partly resume.

2. The Fed raises rates for the first time since 2023
Last Wednesday’s rise came as no surprise. Markets had priced it at more than 90 percent, and the Fed delivered: a quarter point to a range of 3.75 to 4 percent, the first increase since July 2023, and unanimous. Long-term rates had been running ahead of it: the US ten-year yield climbed above 5 percent in mid-September, its highest since 2007, pushed up by high commodity prices and stubborn inflation. Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation has been too high for too long, and that this summer’s readings do not convince him the underlying trend is improving. Sixteen of the eighteen Fed officials expect another increase this year, and markets put the odds for next month at around 60 percent.

3. SEC and CFTC press ahead without Congress
On September 17, the SEC ruled that trading venues may handle tokenized US stocks on a blockchain without registering as a securities exchange. The decision came two days after the CLARITY-Act stalled in the Senate, and the exemption runs for five years. Chair Paul Atkins pointed straight at the deadlock in Congress when he announced it. The CFTC sent two draft crypto market rules to the White House the same day, and said it will not act against builders of trading software that never touches customer funds, even though they do not register as brokers. The difference with Europe is the form. Here, MiCAR sets the division of supervision in law. In the United States it rests on exemptions and no-action letters that a future chair can withdraw.

Ries’ take

The CLARITY-Act fell short, and a few days later the Fed raised rates on top of it. Normally that would push prices down. Instead it was a good week. Both decisions had been expected for a long time, so the reaction stayed small. Then came the good news out of Washington. The SEC decision on trading tokenized stocks and the CFTC’s decision not to treat builders of trading software as brokers are clearly positive for the sector. The developments are stacking up, in the technology and in the rules.