Bitcoin is knocking at the door

Every week, Amdax summarizes what’s happening in the crypto market for you. Want to dive deeper? Click on the links in this email for more insights.

This newsletter is a co-production with our partner, Bitcoin Alpha. 

Market Update 

Stay informed in three steps:

1. Bitcoin Tests the Top
On Wednesday morning, bitcoin touched $108,000, once again approaching its all-time high. This marks the third time in five months that the upper bound of the current price range is being tested. Unlike previous peaks, which were marked by high volatility and clear exuberance, sentiment now remains strikingly subdued. This suggests a market that is not yet overheated, leaving room for a potential next leg upward.

2. Macro Calm Boosts Confidence
The threat of new U.S. trade tariffs appears to be off the table for now. Risk indicators such as the MOVE, VIX, and credit spreads have dropped sharply since. Risk appetite is returning to the market, supported in part by better-than-expected producer inflation data in the U.S. Confidence is rising, although uncertainties around economic growth and interest rates persist.

3. Ether Recovers, But No Trend Reversal Yet
With its recent rebound, ether has regained ground relative to bitcoin. Still, it’s too early to call it a trend reversal—ether would need to outperform bitcoin more significantly and for a longer period. Inflows into U.S.-based ether products are picking up, but not yet strong enough to indicate a sustained shift toward ether.

News Overview

Signal from the noise:

• U.S. Senate Passes Stablecoin Bill After All
  The U.S. Senate has now approved the so-called GENIUS Act, which introduces strict regulations for stablecoins. These include full backing by liquid assets, transparency regarding reserves, and restrictions for foreign issuers. The bill had previously been blocked due to ethical concerns over Trump’s involvement in crypto projects. However, after amendments were made, it passed with broad support (66–32). This marks a significant step by the U.S. towards clearer regulation of digital dollars.
   
• JPMorgan Offers Clients Access to Bitcoin
  JPMorgan clients can now invest in bitcoin through their existing accounts. The bank itself does not custody the bitcoin; that is handled by third-party providers. This move signals a notable shift: although CEO Jamie Dimon remains critical of bitcoin, he acknowledges growing client demand. JPMorgan is now following in the footsteps of other major banks offering crypto services.
   
• New Companies Follow MicroStrategy’s Lead
  From Singapore to Brazil, companies such as Basel Medical Group, DDC Enterprise, Top Win, Méliuz, Addentax, and Nakamoto Holdings are announcing plans to add bitcoin to their balance sheets. Some are looking to invest tens of millions, while others are aiming for 5,000 BTC or more. The message is clear: the bitcoin strategy is gaining global traction.
   
• Fifth Third Bancorp Explores Broader Crypto Role
  The major U.S. bank, managing $200 billion in assets, has built a modest crypto client base in recent years and is now actively exploring the use of stablecoins for international payments. It’s also examining ways to enable consumer crypto payments. “We need to leverage this technology,” said Chief Strategy Officer Ben Hoffman.
   
• U.S. Pension Funds Increase Bitcoin Exposure
  Analyst Julian Fahrer reviewed their exposure to Strategy. In Q1 2025, fourteen U.S. states increased their holdings in the company, adding a total of $302 million. Combined, their exposure now stands at $632 million. These funds have found a regulated way to benefit from bitcoin’s price developments through their investment in Strategy.
   
• Ukraine Drafts Bill to Make Bitcoin a Strategic Reserve
  Ukraine is working on legislation to include bitcoin as a strategic state reserve. The central government, in collaboration with Binance, aims to establish a national BTC reserve. The political goal? Economic stability in times of conflict and currency volatility. If the plan goes ahead, Ukraine would be the first European country to hold bitcoin on its balance sheet. A geopolitical first in the making?
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Amdax’s Take
The market is nearing its all-time high in U.S. dollars, but without the usual signs of overheating. Volatility remains low, selling pressure is limited, and risk appetite is increasing. At the same time, inflows into ETFs are picking up again, and interest in ether is also growing. This marks a new chapter: the foundation of the market is strengthening, and major capital is beginning to stir once more. If this trend continues, the next acceleration could come quickly.