Bull market gets tailwind, but prices face resistance

Every week, Amdax summarizes what’s happening in the crypto market for you. Want to dive deeper? Click on the links in this email for more insights.

This newsletter is a co-production with our partner, Bitcoin Alpha.    

Market update

Stay informed in three steps:

1. Powell gives bull market a push forward
With a cautious rate cut of 25 basis points, Fed Chair Powell presented the U.S. economy as healthy, with inflation under control. No panic, but rather a “luxury cut” that confirms the bull market rather than threatens it. Risk assets, including bitcoin, could benefit over time from this signal of confidence.

2. Bitcoin balances at a crossroads
Around $117,000, bitcoin sits in the so-called “golden pocket”: the zone where the correction may either end or deepen. A break above $118k could spark a swift recovery toward new records. However, if resistance holds, a dip toward $98k–108k may come first before the upward trend continues.

3. U.S. economy appears stronger than ever
Retail sales, credit growth, and confidence among financiers all point to accelerating growth. The Federal Reserve’s leading research bureau even projects 3.4% growth in the third quarter. Strong consumers and willing lenders could serve as a solid foundation beneath the bull market.

News overview

The signal in the noise:

• Regulators in France, Austria and Italy threaten to undermine MiCA
  They argue that licensing requirements differ so much that the principle of “passporting” – one license valid across the EU – is at risk. Their threat: refusing to recognize each other’s licenses. Malta, which is known for readily admitting international exchanges, is particularly under fire. The regulatory trio wants the European supervisor ESMA to take a much stronger role.
   
• Grayscale launches first crypto index fund ETF in the U.S.
  The Crypto 5 ETF (GDLC) bundles bitcoin, ether, XRP, solana, and cardano, together representing over 80% of the market. This gives investors broad exposure in one move, with periodic rebalancing. On its first trading day, the new fund already saw $22 million in volume. The path is now open for sector-specific funds, ranging from DeFi to even memecoins.
   
• Ethereum’s next hard fork, Fusaka, scheduled for December 3
  The upgrade introduces, among other things, data-availability sampling and gradually doubles blob capacity. This will be implemented through so-called BPO forks, scheduled for mid-December and early January. The aim: lower rollup costs and less strain on nodes. For users, this means cheaper and faster transactions on layer-two networks.

Amdax take
Europe struggles with its own ambitions. MiCA was meant to create a single capital market for crypto, but now risks bogging down in national interests. France, Austria, and Italy are openly questioning the foundations of the licensing system. It is a painful reminder that legislation only works if its implementation also moves across borders.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is pulling ahead with crypto ETFs and innovative products, and Europe risks losing its competitive position. At Amdax, we believe in clear rules and a level playing field. Only then can Europe fulfill MiCA’s promise.