A hesitant recovery

Every week, Amdax summarizes what’s happening in the crypto market for you. Want to dive deeper? Click on the links in this email for more insights.

This newsletter is a co-production with our partner, Bitcoin Alpha.    

Market update

Stay informed in three steps:

1. Macro factors lose dominance as markets calm down
After two months in which macroeconomic uncertainty dictated market sentiment, the tone is shifting. The familiar concerns remain, from central bank policy to uneven economic data and questions around the sustainability of the AI-investment wave. However, these factors are no longer triggering abrupt sell-offs as fast. Although volatility is still present, prices have largely moved within a broader range in recent weeks, signaling a phase of consolidation.

2. Crypto recovers, but remains sensitive to shocks
The crypto market is also in consolidation rather than forming a clear new trend. Bitcoin rebounded toward USD 93,000, and total market capitalization climbed back to roughly USD 3.25 trillion. Yet Friday highlighted how fragile the recovery still is: a sharp wave of liquidations pushed bitcoin down about USD 4,000 in a short timespan. The positive takeaway is that the market absorbed the shock well and did not slip into a renewed sell-off. Sentiment remains constructive but vulnerable.

3. Crypto awaits direction: all eyes on the Fed
The Nasdaq failed to maintain its recent momentum, prompting investors to become more selective in their risk appetite. In crypto, this translates into a preference for the largest and most liquid assets. At the same time, attention is shifting back to macro events: the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on Wednesday, December 10, followed by new U.S. inflation and labor-market data. Unless these releases provide a clear signal, a period of sideways price action appears likely.

News overview

The key headlines from this week:

• Argentina aims to let banks offer crypto services again.
  The central bank is considering lifting its years-long ban, which would allow banks to provide trading and custody of crypto assets. The move reflects existing reality: many Argentinians already use bitcoin to ease the burden of inflation. With new rules, the BCRA intends to formalize this usage, tighten KYC/AML requirements, and create competition with informal exchanges.
   
• President Trump’s new national security strategy makes no mention of crypto or blockchain.
  This is notable, as Trump previously stated that the U.S. “must be number one in crypto,” warning about potential Chinese dominance. The document instead highlights AI, biotech, and quantum computing as strategic national priorities. It includes only a vague reference to preserving America’s “financial sector dominance” through digital innovation.
   
• Brussels seeks to centralize supervision of crypto firms.
  The European Commission has proposed shifting oversight away from individual member states and placing it under ESMA, the EU’s financial markets regulator. The goal: to end fragmentation in MiCA enforcement and improve the quality of cross-border supervision. Earlier this year, several national regulators asked ESMA for assistance in overseeing the crypto sector.

Amdax's take

The market is consolidating and still lacks strong conviction for a new trend. Recent price movements feel like a pause: investors focus on the biggest and most liquid coins, and there is little interest in leverage while macro uncertainty continues. This week’s key event is the Fed’s rate decision, followed by the Bank of Japan next week. These are the main drivers going into year-end. Unless macro data surprises, we expect mostly sideways movement with short, liquidity-driven price swings. Our view remains: consolidation, not the start of a bear market.