Bitcoin joins the drop, but not the recovery
Bitcoin fell along with tech stocks last week and hit its lowest level since August on Sunday. When stocks bounced back on Monday, bitcoin stayed put. In Washington, prediction markets and crypto companies linked to the Trump family are coming under fire. And on Thursday, the Dutch House of Representatives votes on box 3, the Dutch tax on wealth and investments, where crypto remains an exception.
Every week, Amdax summarizes what’s happening in the crypto market for you. Want to dive deeper? Click on the links (if available) in this article for more insights.
Market update
Stay informed in three steps:
1. The post-election jump lasted a single day
Bitcoin briefly climbed above 81,000 dollars last Wednesday, the day after the US elections. A day later the gain was gone. On Thursday the Nasdaq fell 5.5 percent, its biggest one-day drop since April 2025. Some investors blamed ballot measures in ten states where voters backed limits on data center construction, though doubts about the billions going into AI had been building for weeks. Bitcoin fell over the same period and briefly dipped below 73,500 dollars on Sunday, its lowest level since August. On Monday stocks and gold rallied and oil fell further on hopes of a deal with Iran, but crypto stayed down. On Tuesday, US inflation for October came in hotter than expected at 0.4 percent for the month, and markets now expect a Fed rate hike in December. Bitcoin then briefly slipped back below its Sunday low.
2. Trump family crypto ventures face a tougher Congress
Two days after Democrats won both chambers of Congress, Senator Richard Blumenthal sent letters to World Liberty Financial, the Trump family’s crypto company, and to Fight Fight Fight, the company behind the TRUMP memecoin. Binance and Tether received letters as well. According to Blumenthal, Binance held most of USD1, World Liberty’s stablecoin, early this year. The Trump-linked firms have to start handing over records before November 30. On January 4, a day after the new Congress is sworn in, Blumenthal can force them to hand over documents as chair of the Senate investigations subcommittee. Prediction markets, where you trade on the outcome of real-world events, are also under fire. Donald Trump Jr. advises both Kalshi and Polymarket, and his investment firm put money into Polymarket. Democrats mainly want stricter rules for markets tied to elections and wars.
3. Dutch government ignores Council of State on crypto tax
The Dutch government is going ahead with the new box 3 tax, despite advice from the Council of State not to submit the proposal. The start date does move back a year, to January 1, 2029. After Monday’s debate, a majority in the House of Representatives seems within reach, with JA21 supporting the plan alongside the coalition, and the vote is on Thursday. Under the plan, gains on stocks, bonds and investment funds would be taxed only when you sell. Crypto in your own wallet is the exception. From 2029, it will be taxed on its yearly increase in value, even if you do not sell anything. On Monday, the government told parliament the exception would last one year at most, and that it would introduce a bill in 2027 to tax crypto on sale from 2030. After the House of Representatives, the Senate still has to vote, and a majority there is less certain.
Ries’ take
For years bitcoin moved in step with tech stocks, and lately that link seemed to be weakening. This week it still worked fine, but only on the way down. When the Nasdaq fell hard on Thursday, bitcoin went down with it. When stocks bounced on Monday, bitcoin stayed where it was. Nvidia sat out Monday’s rebound too. Over the weekend, its CEO told staff he had had an affair with a woman US officials suspect of spying for China. Washington has spent years keeping Nvidia’s best chips out of Chinese hands, but apparently forgot to warn the CEO. So Nvidia had an explanation. Bitcoin did not. For now, bitcoin follows tech stocks down without following them back up. That only changes once crypto starts moving on its own news again.
Behind the scenes
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6.3 billion dollars disappeared from Binance last week, the largest crypto theft on record. Bitcoin slid along with tech stocks to its lowest level since mid-September. The same day, the owner of the NYSE chose Hyperliquid’s technology for a new market. And the Dutch Council of State wants the new Box 3 tax postponed until 2030.
Bitcoin slipped back to 80,000 dollars with tech stocks over the past week, while gold fell below 4,000 dollars. The Fed decides on rates today. In the US, the first final stablecoin rules are in place, and DNB has mapped Dutch household crypto holdings for the first time.
Crypto was remarkably quiet this week, while US inflation figures came in hotter than expected. Stocks pulled back on the news, and crypto hardly reacted. Meanwhile, the SEC closed the comment window on its first permanent crypto rules, a debate Europe has already worked through with MiCAR.
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